Thunder vs. Timberwolves Odds, Picks and Best Bets for Game 3 Alex Payton •

Leading 2-0, the Oklahoma City Thunder can go for the kill shot Saturday night in Minnesota.

The Wolves have had no answer for 2025 NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has scored 30 or more points in each of his last five games. Minnesota has gotten precious little from its big men, and Julius Randle flamed out in Game 2. No NBA team has ever come back from a series trailing 3-0.

Minnesota is 4-1 at home in the playoffs and has to hope that a return to the friendly rims at the Target Center will help.

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Thunder at Wolves Game 3 Odds

This NBA betting line opened at some places with the Thunder laying as much as four points, but 24 hours before tipoff it had dropped to 2.5. That would be the smallest number they’ve been favored by the entire playoffs.

The Thunder haven’t been underdogs since March 12. In the playoffs, the Thunder are 6-7 against the spread and 6-7 over/under. OKC covered both games of the series so far easily.

Minnesota has covered the spread in its last seven games as a home underdog against Western Conference foes. They’re 9-1 in their last 10 at home. The Wolves are 8-4 against the spread in the playoffs and 6-6 over under.

The total of 218 is the same as it was for Game 2. This season, Minnesota is 12-14 straight up as underdogs.

Thunder at Wolves Game 3 Preview

I hate to say I told you so, but I predicted Game 2 would follow a similar script to Game 1, and it pretty much did. OKC rode a big third quarter to a 24-point lead. Unlike Game 1, Minnesota rallied to within 10 in the fourth, but there was never a time it felt like OKC was in trouble.

Minnesota have been helpless against ‘Mr. Skinny’ Chet Holmgren, who has 37 points in two games. That’s more than Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid have scored combined (21). Jalen Williams had 26 and 10 in Game 2 and when he’s hot, it’s another weapon in the OKC bag.

I think some of the gripes about SGA and the drawing fouls are legit, but in Game 2, Minnesota made more free throws than the Thunder did. That blows that theory out of the water.

The Wolves have been better at home (29-17) than on the road (28-20), while the Thunder are 35-10 in their road uniforms. Anthony Edwards has 50 points in two games for Minnesota but isn’t getting much help.

Thunder at Wolves Game 3 Prediction

I’m stunned to see the line going toward Minnesota. The Wolves haven’t shown this series that they can handle the Thunder’s defense (31 turnovers in two games) and haven’t figured out what to do with SGA and company. SGA likes to drive, but his mid-range game is first-rate and he has a knack for making the pass just as the defense collapses on him.

It’s tempting to watch the first two games and think, well, this one, this is the one the Wolves will get. They’re back home. Edwards could go for 40, Randle has to play better, but I don’t see it. It’s fair to wonder if Minnesota got a break getting here against the Lakers Soap Opera and the Steph Curry-less Warriors. OKC has been the real deal, and it’s hard to find any reason not to lay the points.

The Pick: Thunder -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

The NBA’s Western Conference Finals start tonight when Oklahoma City hosts Minnesota for Game 1 at the Paycom Center.

Rest is the storyline entering Game 1. The Wolves haven’t played since May 14, after downing Golden State in five games, while OKC had to battle Denver for seven games and played Sunday. Advantage Twolves.

We’re well-rested and ready for a good series featuring two of the NBA’s biggest stars in Anthony Edwards and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. OKC is favored to win the series.

Wolves at Thunder Game 1 Odds

Minnesota is getting 7.5 points for Game 1 with the total at 216. The Wolves are 8-2 against the spread in the playoffs, while the Thunder are 4-8. The Thunder are 40-7 at home this season.

Minnesota has covered 16 of their last 17 games as underdogs when having a rest advantage, which they certainly do tonight. I’m looking at the over tonight. Minnesota has gone over in 37 of its last 56 games, while OKC has hit the over in 40 of its last 66 games.

Wolves guard Julius Randle has scored 25 or more in five of his last six games against OKC. The Thunder loves to start fast. They have led at halftime in 28 of their last 33 games.

Wolves at Thunder Game 1 Preview

The Wolves are back in the conference finals for the second straight year, but the franchise has never reached the NBA Finals. OKC last made the Finals in 2016.

Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Edwards is the match-up everyone wants to focus on, with good reason. They are the clear Alpha Dogs on each team. In the playoffs, their numbers are roughly the same. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 29 points, and Edwards 26.5.

However, this season in the four regular season games, SAG has a big edge. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 35 this year against Minnesota while Edwards put up 22.3. In fact, Edwards has only averaged 20.8 in his career against the Wolves.

The two teams split four meetings, with the game totals averaging 236.7 (another reason I like the over). The average margin of victory was 8.25. Minnesota went 3-1 against the spread in the four games, and three of the four went over.

If you consider SAG vs. Edwards a wash, then who’s next? Randle has scored 23.9 in the playoffs. He’s a better second option than what OKC has in Jalen Williams. Neither team has traditional bigs, Chet Holmgren gives OKC size and outside shooting. Naz Reid comes off the bench for Minnesota and does the same.

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Wolves at Thunder Game 1 Prediction

I predict the Wolves are all over OKC in Game 1. I do believe in the rest theory in the playoffs. Minnesota has had time to dissect the Thunder and will be fresher when Game 1 tips off. I know playoff basketball is different from the regular season, but we have to use the data points we get from the regular season.

These two teams split the four games. It wasn’t one-sided, which checks a box for Minnesota for me. I think OKC has a natural emotional let-down after the Game 7 win. I also like Minnesota’s second and third options better entering Game 1 than I do the Thunder.

Minnesota has been too good against the spread in the playoffs. Even if they lose, I think it’s close, so I’ll take all the points.

The Pick: Wolves +7.5 (-110 at Bet365)